UFC 140: Jones vs Machida: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 668 points above Machida's 1493. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jones the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Lyoto Machida. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 84%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 244 points above Nogueira's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Nogueira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Nogueira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The model gives Mir a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nogueira at 1142 versus Ortiz at 1059. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rogerio Nogueira over Tito Ortiz. The model gives Nogueira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Ebersole (5-2) taking on Claude Patrick (3-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Patrick at 1210 versus Ebersole at 1065. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Patrick has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ebersole throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Patrick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Ebersole over Claude Patrick. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ebersole at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Mark Hominick (3-3). Jung will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 1528 — 686 points above Hominick's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chan Sung Jung over Mark Hominick. The model gives Jung a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Igor Pokrajac (4-7) taking on Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2). Soszynski will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soszynski is rated at 975 — 211 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Igor Pokrajac. The model gives Soszynski a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Jared Hamman (2-4). Hamman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Philippou is rated at 1179 — 445 points above Hamman's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Philippou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Hamman over Constantinos Philippou. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hamman at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Hallman (3-5) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Hallman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hallman is rated at 1203 — 214 points above Makdessi's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hallman's wrestler game against Makdessi's striker approach. Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Dennis Hallman. We're leaning Makdessi here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yves Jabouin (5-4) taking on Walel Watson (1-2). Watson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Jabouin carries a modest Elo edge (845 to 807), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Watson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walel Watson over Yves Jabouin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Watson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Bocek will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek carries a modest Elo edge (1230 to 1159), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Mark Bocek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lentz at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Hecht (1-1) taking on Rich Attonito (3-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hecht at 963, Attonito at 985. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Attonito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hecht has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Attonito over Jake Hecht. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Attonito at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features John Cholish (1-1) taking on Mitch Clarke (2-4).

Cholish is rated at 1001 — 199 points above Clarke's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clarke throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Clarke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Clarke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Clarke over John Cholish. The model gives Clarke a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.