UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos lands on Saturday, November 12, 2011 in Anaheim, California, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Dos Santos vs Cain VelasquezHeavyweight | Junior Dos Santos | Lean | 59% |
| Benson Henderson vs Clay GuidaLightweight | Benson Henderson | Toss-up | 53% |
| Dustin Poirier vs Pablo GarzaFeatherweight | Dustin Poirier | Lean | 62% |
| Ricardo Lamas vs Cub SwansonFeatherweight | Ricardo Lamas | Lean | 58% |
| DaMarques Johnson vs Clay HarvisonWelterweight | DaMarques Johnson | Toss-up | 52% |
| Darren Uyenoyama vs Norifumi YamamotoBantamweight | Darren Uyenoyama | Lean | 58% |
| Mackens Semerzier vs Robert PeraltaFeatherweight | Robert Peralta | Lean | 60% |
| Alex Caceres vs Cole EscovedoBantamweight | Alex Caceres | Toss-up | 54% |
| Mike Pierce vs Paul BradleyWelterweight | Mike Pierce | Confident | 70% |
| Aaron Rosa vs Matt LucasLight Heavyweight | Aaron Rosa | Confident | 72% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez
The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Cain Velasquez (12-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santos.
Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 398 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Velasquez's submission artist approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Cain Velasquez. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Benson Henderson vs Clay Guida
The Lightweight matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).
Henderson is rated at 1507 — 581 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Benson Henderson over Clay Guida. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Henderson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Dustin Poirier vs Pablo Garza
The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Pablo Garza (3-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Garza.
Poirier is rated at 1681 — 743 points above Garza's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Garza's wrestler approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Garza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Garza throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Pablo Garza. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Ricardo Lamas vs Cub Swanson
The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lamas at 1285, Swanson at 1255. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Lamas's all-rounder game against Swanson's striker approach. Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Swanson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lamas throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Cub Swanson. The model gives Lamas a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
DaMarques Johnson vs Clay Harvison
The Welterweight matchup features DaMarques Johnson (4-5) taking on Clay Harvison (1-1).
Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (841 to 805), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Harvison throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Harvison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: DaMarques Johnson over Clay Harvison. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Darren Uyenoyama vs Norifumi Yamamoto
The Bantamweight matchup features Darren Uyenoyama (2-1) taking on Norifumi Yamamoto (0-3).
Uyenoyama is rated at 961 — 196 points above Yamamoto's 765. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Yamamoto throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yamamoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Uyenoyama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Darren Uyenoyama over Norifumi Yamamoto. The model gives Uyenoyama a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Mackens Semerzier vs Robert Peralta
The Featherweight matchup features Mackens Semerzier (1-0) taking on Robert Peralta (4-2).
Peralta carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Semerzier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 12.6 more per 15 minutes. Semerzier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Robert Peralta over Mackens Semerzier. The model gives Peralta a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Alex Caceres vs Cole Escovedo
The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Cole Escovedo (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Caceres.
Caceres is rated at 1232 — 502 points above Escovedo's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Escovedo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Escovedo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Escovedo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alex Caceres over Cole Escovedo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Mike Pierce vs Paul Bradley
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Paul Bradley (0-1).
Pierce is rated at 1171 — 286 points above Bradley's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bradley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Pierce over Paul Bradley. We're leaning Pierce here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aaron Rosa (1-1) taking on Matt Lucas (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rosa at 902, Lucas at 884. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Aaron Rosa over Matt Lucas. We're leaning Rosa here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.