UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Chris Leben (12-9).

Munoz is rated at 1082 — 228 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Munoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Leben looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leben the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Munoz over Chris Leben. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barao at 821, Pickett at 834. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Brad Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Barao at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Papy Abedi (1-2).

Alves carries a modest Elo edge (901 to 865), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Abedi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Papy Abedi. The model is firm on this one: Alves at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-6) taking on Cyrille Diabate (4-3). Diabate is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perosh at 872, Diabate at 862. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Perosh is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Diabate is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Diabate the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diabate throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Diabate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cyrille Diabate over Anthony Perosh. The model gives Diabate a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Edward Faaloloto (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Etim at 947 versus Faaloloto at 809. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faaloloto throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Etim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Etim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Etim over Edward Faaloloto. We're leaning Etim here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features John Maguire (2-2) taking on Justin Edwards (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maguire at 897 versus Edwards at 798. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Maguire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Edwards over John Maguire. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Philip De Fries (2-2) taking on Rob Broughton (1-1). Fries is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Broughton at 973 versus Fries at 858. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Broughton throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Broughton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fries has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Philip De Fries over Rob Broughton. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fries at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Michihiro Omigawa (1-5) taking on Jason Young (1-2). Young is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Young at 842 versus Omigawa at 753. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Omigawa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Omigawa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Young over Michihiro Omigawa. The model gives Young a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Che Mills (2-1) taking on Chris Cope (1-1). Mills will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mills is rated at 1155 — 343 points above Cope's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cope throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cope is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mills has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Che Mills over Chris Cope. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mills at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cariaso carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 891), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vaughan Lee over Chris Cariaso. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lee at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.