UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1). Maynard is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 211 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Gray Maynard. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Kenny Florian (12-4). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Aldo at 1420 versus Florian at 1304. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Florian the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldo throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Aldo over Kenny Florian. The model gives Aldo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Brian Stann (6-4).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 354 points above Stann's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's wrestler game against Stann's knockout artist approach. Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sonnen throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chael Sonnen over Brian Stann. The model gives Sonnen a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nam Phan (2-5) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Garcia.

Phan is rated at 859 — 190 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Phan's striker game against Garcia's wrestler approach. Phan brings a versatile approach, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nam Phan over Leonard Garcia. The model gives Phan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Guillard at 1177 versus Lauzon at 1036. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lauzon's submission artist game against Guillard's striker approach. Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Guillard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Joe Lauzon. We're leaning Guillard here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Jorge Santiago (1-4). Santiago will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 599 points above Santiago's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maia's wrestler game against Santiago's knockout artist approach. Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Jorge Santiago. We're leaning Maia here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 571 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's all-rounder game against Stephens's knockout artist approach. Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Anthony Pettis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stephens at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 1031 points above Beltran's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Joey Beltran. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miocic at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Zhang Tiequan (1-2). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 294 points above Tiequan's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiequan throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Tiequan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Zhang Tiequan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Eric Schafer (3-5). Schafer is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Simpson is rated at 1097 — 220 points above Schafer's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Schafer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Eric Schafer. We're leaning Simpson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Massenzio (2-4) taking on Steve Cantwell (1-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Massenzio at 807 versus Cantwell at 726. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cantwell throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Cantwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Cantwell over Mike Massenzio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cantwell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.