UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Sunday, August 14, 2011·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Chris Lytle won by Submission (R3)
Lytle 54%46% Hardy
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Hardy)
LightweightMISS
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Henderson 35%65% Miller
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -403(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Henderson)
LightweightMISS
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cerrone 37%63% Oliveira
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Oliveira)
WelterweightMISS
Duane Ludwig won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ludwig 36%64% Sadollah
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -185(favors Sadollah)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Sadollah)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Sadollah)
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Hamman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hamman 37%63% Dollaway
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -270(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Hamman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Dollaway)
BantamweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 70%30% Wineland
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +190(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Benavidez)
MiddleweightMISS
Ed Herman won by Submission (R1)
Herman 48%52% Noke
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Herman)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ronny Markes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Markes 40%60% Vemola
LEAN
→Elo gap: -16(favors Vemola)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Vemola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Vemola)
FeatherweightHIT
Jimy Hettes won by Submission (R2)
Hettes 51%49% Caceres
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Hettes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Caceres)
LightweightHIT
Cole Miller won by Submission (R2)
Miller 60%40% O'Brien
LEAN
→Elo gap: +289(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors O'Brien)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors O'Brien)
LightweightMISS
Jacob Volkmann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkmann 41%59% Castillo
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +31(favors Volkmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Castillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Castillo)
BantamweightHIT
Edwin Figueroa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Figueroa 77%23% Reinhardt
STRONG
→Elo gap: +50(favors Figueroa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Figueroa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reinhardt)