UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle lands on Sunday, August 14, 2011 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA with 12 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lytle vs Dan HardyWelterweight | Chris Lytle | Toss-up | 54% |
| Benson Henderson vs Jim MillerLightweight | Jim Miller | Lean | 65% |
| Donald Cerrone vs Charles OliveiraLightweight | Charles Oliveira | Lean | 63% |
| Duane Ludwig vs Amir SadollahWelterweight | Amir Sadollah | Lean | 64% |
| Jared Hamman vs CB DollawayMiddleweight | CB Dollaway | Lean | 63% |
| Joseph Benavidez vs Eddie WinelandBantamweight | Joseph Benavidez | Confident | 70% |
| Ed Herman vs Kyle NokeMiddleweight | Kyle Noke | Toss-up | 52% |
| Ronny Markes vs Karlos VemolaLight Heavyweight | Karlos Vemola | Lean | 60% |
| Jimy Hettes vs Alex CaceresFeatherweight | Jimy Hettes | Toss-up | 51% |
| Cole Miller vs TJ O'BrienLightweight | Cole Miller | Lean | 60% |
| Jacob Volkmann vs Danny CastilloLightweight | Danny Castillo | Lean | 59% |
| Edwin Figueroa vs Jason ReinhardtBantamweight | Edwin Figueroa | Strong | 77% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Chris Lytle vs Dan Hardy
The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Dan Hardy (5-4). Hardy will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Lytle carries a modest Elo edge (1330 to 1262), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lytle the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Lytle over Dan Hardy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lytle at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Benson Henderson vs Jim Miller
The Lightweight matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).
Henderson is rated at 1507 — 293 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jim Miller over Benson Henderson. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Donald Cerrone vs Charles Oliveira
The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.
Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 792 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Duane Ludwig vs Amir Sadollah
The Welterweight matchup features Duane Ludwig (4-4) taking on Amir Sadollah (6-4). Sadollah will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Sadollah at 946 versus Ludwig at 853. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Ludwig's striker game against Sadollah's all-rounder approach. Ludwig brings a versatile approach, while Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadollah is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Amir Sadollah over Duane Ludwig. The model gives Sadollah a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Jared Hamman vs CB Dollaway
The Middleweight matchup features Jared Hamman (2-4) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8).
Dollaway is rated at 965 — 231 points above Hamman's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Hamman's striker game against Dollaway's wrestler approach. Hamman brings a versatile approach, while Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: CB Dollaway over Jared Hamman. The model gives Dollaway a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5).
Herman is rated at 1045 — 176 points above Noke's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Herman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Herman the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyle Noke over Ed Herman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Noke at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Ronny Markes vs Karlos Vemola
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ronny Markes (3-1) taking on Karlos Vemola (2-3).
Markes carries a modest Elo edge (918 to 839), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Vemola throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vemola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Markes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Karlos Vemola over Ronny Markes. The model gives Vemola a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Jimy Hettes vs Alex Caceres
The Featherweight matchup features Jimy Hettes (3-2) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12).
Caceres is rated at 1232 — 301 points above Hettes's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Hettes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hettes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hettes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jimy Hettes over Alex Caceres. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hettes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Cole Miller vs TJ O'Brien
The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on TJ O'Brien (0-1).
Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 853), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. O'Brien throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cole Miller over TJ O'Brien. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Jacob Volkmann vs Danny Castillo
The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6).
Volkmann carries a modest Elo edge (1028 to 951), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Volkmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Castillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Volkmann the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Danny Castillo over Jacob Volkmann. The model gives Castillo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Edwin Figueroa vs Jason Reinhardt
The Bantamweight matchup features Edwin Figueroa (2-3) taking on Jason Reinhardt (0-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Figueroa at 854 versus Reinhardt at 755. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Figueroa throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Reinhardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueroa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edwin Figueroa over Jason Reinhardt. The model is firm on this one: Figueroa at 77%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.