UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Matt Hamill (10-4). Hamill will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jackson at 1296 versus Hamill at 1150. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hamill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Matt Hamill. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Mir is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mir at 1252 versus Nelson at 1129. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Mir is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Mir the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Roy Nelson. We're leaning Mir here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 253 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Struve is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Travis Browne. The model gives Struve a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11).

Story is rated at 1358 — 457 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Story's wrestler game against Alves's striker approach. Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Thiago Alves. The model gives Story a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Jorge Santiago (1-4).

Stann is rated at 1077 — 305 points above Santiago's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stann's all-rounder game against Santiago's knockout artist approach. Stann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Stann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Stann over Jorge Santiago. The model gives Stann a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Miguel Torres (2-1). Torres is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 594 points above Torres's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.0 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Miguel Torres. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Kendall Grove (7-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 180 points above Grove's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Boetsch's all-rounder game against Grove's knockout artist approach. Boetsch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grove is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Kendall Grove. The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5).

Tibau is rated at 1019 — 201 points above Oliveira's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Rafaello Oliveira. We're leaning Tibau here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5). McDonald is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 262 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McDonald's knockout artist game against Cariaso's all-rounder approach. McDonald is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Cariaso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Michael McDonald. The model gives Cariaso a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Cole Escovedo (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barao at 821 versus Escovedo at 730. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escovedo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Escovedo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Escovedo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Cole Escovedo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barao at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.