UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Saturday, September 14, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·10 fights
Model: 6/10(60%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dvalishvili 53%47% O'Malley
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+4.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors O'Malley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Dvalishvili)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Shevchenko 48%52% Grasso
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Shevchenko)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Lopes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopes 64%36% Ortega
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 65% (-0.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Ortega)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Ortega)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Ortega)
LightweightMISS
Esteban Ribovics won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ribovics 37%63% Zellhuber
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 36% (+0.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Zellhuber)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Ribovics)
FlyweightHIT
Ronaldo Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 61%39% Osbourne
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 64% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +147(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Osbourne)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Norma Dumont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumont 55%45% Aldana
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 53% (+2.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Dumont)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Dumont)
LightweightMISS
Ignacio Bahamondes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bahamondes 46%54% Torres
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Torres)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Ketlen Souza won by Submission (R1)
Souza 22%78% Jauregui
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 20% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -103(favors Jauregui)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Jauregui)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Souza)
FlyweightHIT
Joshua Van won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Van 70%30% Chairez
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +24(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Van)
Early Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jr. 60%40% Aoriqileng
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Jr.)