UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 218 points above Sanchez's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kampmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Martin Kampmann. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Munoz at 1082 versus Dollaway at 965. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Munoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Mark Munoz. The model gives Dollaway a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Weidman at 1060 versus Sakara at 931. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Sakara's striker approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Alessio Sakara. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Weidman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Bowles (2-1) taking on Damacio Page (0-2). Bowles will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bowles is rated at 857 — 159 points above Page's 698. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Page throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Page is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damacio Page over Brian Bowles. The model gives Page a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Cyrille Diabate (4-3) taking on Steve Cantwell (1-4). Diabate is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Diabate at 862 versus Cantwell at 726. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Diabate's knockout artist game against Cantwell's wrestler approach. Diabate is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cantwell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cantwell throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cantwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cantwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Cantwell over Cyrille Diabate. The model gives Cantwell a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7).

Castillo carries a modest Elo edge (951 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Castillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stevenson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Danny Castillo. We're leaning Stevenson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Shane Roller (2-3) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1). Roller is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 210 points above Roller's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Shane Roller. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Reuben Duran (1-2).

Mizugaki is rated at 995 — 170 points above Duran's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duran throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Duran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Duran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Reuben Duran over Takeya Mizugaki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duran at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dongi Yang (1-3) taking on Rob Kimmons (3-3).

Yang is rated at 1066 — 269 points above Kimmons's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yang throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dongi Yang over Rob Kimmons. The model gives Yang a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on David Branch (4-4). Branch is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Palhares at 1251 versus Branch at 1136. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Palhares's wrestler game against Branch's striker approach. Palhares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Branch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over David Branch. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Palhares at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Igor Pokrajac (4-7) taking on Todd Brown (0-1).

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (803 to 764), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Igor Pokrajac over Todd Brown. We're leaning Pokrajac here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.