UFC 125: Resolution: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1). Maynard is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 211 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Gray Maynard. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Chris Leben (12-9).

Stann is rated at 1077 — 222 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stann's all-rounder game against Leben's knockout artist approach. Stann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Leben is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Stann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Brian Stann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leben at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Thiago Silva (6-3). Vera will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1362 — 417 points above Vera's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Silva over Brandon Vera. We're leaning Silva here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11).

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 239 points above Kim's 1318. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Diaz over Dong Hyun Kim. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8).

Guida is rated at 926 — 194 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guida's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Takanori Gomi. We're leaning Guida here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1032 versus Stephens at 941. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stephens's striker game against Davis's all-rounder approach. Stephens brings a versatile approach, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis. We're leaning Stephens here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Josh Grispi (0-3). Grispi is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 994 points above Grispi's 687. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grispi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grispi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grispi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Josh Grispi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Poirier at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Tavares is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tavares is rated at 925 — 163 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Phil Baroni. The model is firm on this one: Tavares at 84%.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Nunes (3-2) taking on Mike Brown (2-3). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nunes carries a modest Elo edge (1047 to 982), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Nunes over Mike Brown. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Roberts (3-3) taking on Greg Soto (1-1).

Soto carries a modest Elo edge (1013 to 974), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Greg Soto. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Antonio McKee (0-0).

Volkmann carries a modest Elo edge (1028 to 949), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkmann throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. McKee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over Antonio McKee. The model is firm on this one: Volkmann at 87%.