UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Saturday, November 20, 2010·Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Quinton Jackson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jackson 50%50% Machida
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Machida)
WelterweightMISS
BJ Penn won by KO/TKO (R1)
Penn 49%51% Hughes
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Hughes)
MiddleweightMISS
Maiquel Falcao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Falcao 21%79% Harris
STRONG
→Elo gap: -269(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Harris)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Phil Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 79%21% Boetsch
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Davis)
LightweightHIT
George Sotiropoulos won by Submission (R2)
Sotiropoulos 63%37% Lauzon
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +274(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lauzon)
WelterweightHIT
Brian Foster won by Submission (R2)
Foster 55%45% Brown
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +1(favors Foster)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Foster)
MiddleweightHIT
Mark Munoz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Munoz 54%46% Simpson
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Munoz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Simpson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Simpson)
WelterweightMISS
Dennis Hallman won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hallman 33%67% Parisyan
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -270(favors Parisyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Parisyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Parisyan)
LightweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barboza 55%45% Lullo
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lullo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lullo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lullo)
LightweightHIT
Paul Kelly won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kelly 62%38% O'Brien
LEAN
→Elo gap: +42(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Kelly)
LightweightHIT
Nik Lentz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lentz 59%41% Griffin
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Lentz)