UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida lands on Saturday, November 20, 2010 in Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Jackson vs Lyoto MachidaLight Heavyweight | Lyoto Machida | Toss-up | 50% |
| BJ Penn vs Matt HughesWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Toss-up | 51% |
| Maiquel Falcao vs Gerald HarrisMiddleweight | Gerald Harris | Strong | 79% |
| Phil Davis vs Tim BoetschLight Heavyweight | Phil Davis | Strong | 79% |
| George Sotiropoulos vs Joe LauzonLightweight | George Sotiropoulos | Lean | 63% |
| Brian Foster vs Matt BrownWelterweight | Brian Foster | Toss-up | 55% |
| Mark Munoz vs Aaron SimpsonMiddleweight | Mark Munoz | Toss-up | 54% |
| Dennis Hallman vs Karo ParisyanWelterweight | Karo Parisyan | Confident | 67% |
| Edson Barboza vs Mike LulloLightweight | Edson Barboza | Lean | 55% |
| Paul Kelly vs TJ O'BrienLightweight | Paul Kelly | Lean | 62% |
| Nik Lentz vs Tyson GriffinLightweight | Nik Lentz | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Quinton Jackson vs Lyoto Machida
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8).
Machida is rated at 1493 — 197 points above Jackson's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Jackson brings a versatile approach, while Machida is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Machida the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Quinton Jackson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Machida at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
The Welterweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 335 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over BJ Penn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Maiquel Falcao vs Gerald Harris
The Middleweight matchup features Maiquel Falcao (0-0) taking on Gerald Harris (3-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Falcao at 1140, Harris at 1129. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Harris has won 3 straight.
A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Falcao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gerald Harris over Maiquel Falcao. The model is firm on this one: Harris at 79%.
Phil Davis vs Tim Boetsch
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Davis is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Davis is rated at 1427 — 253 points above Boetsch's 1174. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Phil Davis over Tim Boetsch. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 79%.
George Sotiropoulos vs Joe Lauzon
The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-3) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).
There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Sotiropoulos at 918. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Sotiropoulos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Sotiropoulos the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Sotiropoulos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Brian Foster vs Matt Brown
The Welterweight matchup features Brian Foster (2-2) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Foster at 1185, Brown at 1201. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Foster is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brian Foster over Matt Brown. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Foster at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Mark Munoz vs Aaron Simpson
The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Aaron Simpson (7-3).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Munoz at 1082, Simpson at 1097. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Munoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Simpson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simpson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Munoz over Aaron Simpson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munoz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Dennis Hallman vs Karo Parisyan
The Welterweight matchup features Dennis Hallman (3-5) taking on Karo Parisyan (8-3).
Hallman is rated at 1203 — 167 points above Parisyan's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Parisyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Dennis Hallman. We're leaning Parisyan here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Edson Barboza vs Mike Lullo
The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Mike Lullo (0-1).
Barboza is rated at 1142 — 324 points above Lullo's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lullo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lullo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lullo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edson Barboza over Mike Lullo. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Paul Kelly vs TJ O'Brien
The Lightweight matchup features Paul Kelly (5-3) taking on TJ O'Brien (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Kelly at 998 versus O'Brien at 853. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Brien has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paul Kelly over TJ O'Brien. The model gives Kelly a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Nik Lentz vs Tyson Griffin
The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Tyson Griffin (8-5).
Lentz is rated at 1159 — 234 points above Griffin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nik Lentz over Tyson Griffin. The model gives Lentz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.