UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bisping.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 537 points above Akiyama's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bisping looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Akiyama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bisping the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Yoshihiro Akiyama. We're leaning Bisping here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Dan Hardy (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hardy at 1262 versus Condit at 1165. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Condit's all-rounder game against Hardy's striker approach. Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hardy brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Condit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hardy over Carlos Condit. The model gives Hardy a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on John Hathaway (7-1).

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 409 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Pyle's knockout artist game against Hathaway's all-rounder approach. Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hathaway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hathaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Hathaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over Mike Pyle. We're leaning Hathaway here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). Kongo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kongo carries a modest Elo edge (1183 to 1131), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Kongo's striker game against Browne's all-rounder approach. Kongo brings a versatile approach, while Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Kongo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Travis Browne. We're leaning Kongo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Claude Patrick (3-0) taking on James Wilks (2-1).

Patrick is rated at 1210 — 215 points above Wilks's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patrick rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilks throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Wilks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claude Patrick over James Wilks. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Patrick at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Cyrille Diabate (4-3).

Gustafsson is rated at 1169 — 308 points above Diabate's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gustafsson's all-rounder game against Diabate's knockout artist approach. Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diabate is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diabate throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Diabate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diabate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cyrille Diabate over Alexander Gustafsson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diabate at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rob Broughton (1-1) taking on Vinicius Queiroz (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Broughton at 973 versus Queiroz at 890. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Queiroz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Queiroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Queiroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Queiroz over Rob Broughton. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Queiroz at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Sass (3-1) taking on Mark Holst (0-1).

Sass is rated at 1099 — 286 points above Holst's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holst throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holst is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Sass over Mark Holst. The model gives Sass a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Curt Warburton (1-1). Warburton is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Warburton at 973 versus Fisher at 876. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Warburton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Curt Warburton. The model is firm on this one: Fisher at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-5) taking on James McSweeney (1-1). McSweeney is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 199 points above McSweeney's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McSweeney throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McSweeney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James McSweeney over Fabio Maldonado. The model gives McSweeney a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.