UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

Franklin carries a modest Elo edge (1094 to 1035), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Franklin's all-rounder game against Liddell's striker approach. Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Liddell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Liddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Chuck Liddell. The model gives Franklin a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (4-6) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Filipovic.

Filipovic is rated at 1145 — 235 points above Barry's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barry throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Filipovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Barry over Mirko Filipovic. The model gives Barry a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 546 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Thiago is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kampmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Martin Kampmann. We're leaning Thiago here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Gilbert Yvel (0-2).

Rothwell is rated at 1080 — 236 points above Yvel's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yvel throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Yvel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yvel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Yvel over Ben Rothwell. The model gives Yvel a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Rory MacDonald (9-3).

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 300 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Carlos Condit. The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Tyson Griffin (8-5). Dunham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dunham at 1019 versus Griffin at 925. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Evan Dunham. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

Danzig carries a modest Elo edge (920 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Wiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Mac Danzig. We're leaning Wiman here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mario Miranda (1-2) taking on David Loiseau (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miranda.

Miranda carries a modest Elo edge (985 to 919), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Loiseau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Miranda over David Loiseau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miranda at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features James Wilks (2-1) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sobotta at 1083 versus Wilks at 995. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilks throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Peter Sobotta over James Wilks. The model gives Sobotta a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Claude Patrick (3-0) taking on Ricardo Funch (0-3).

Patrick is rated at 1210 — 437 points above Funch's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patrick rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Funch throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Funch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Patrick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Funch over Claude Patrick. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Funch at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Jesse Lennox (1-1). Pyle is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lennox carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lennox throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lennox has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesse Lennox over Mike Pyle. The model gives Lennox a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.