UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
Saturday, May 8, 2010·Montreal, Quebec, Canada·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Mauricio Rua won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rua 50%50% Machida
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -349(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rua)
WelterweightMISS
Josh Koscheck won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Koscheck 44%56% Daley
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -80(favors Daley)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Daley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Koscheck)
LightweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stephens 41%59% Stout
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Stout)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Stout)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Stephens)
HeavyweightHIT
Matt Mitrione won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mitrione 77%23% Ferguson
Over/UnderUnder 70%
Under 70%Over 30%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +133(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Ferguson)
MiddleweightHIT
Alan Belcher won by Submission (R2)
Belcher 55%45% Cote
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Belcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cote)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Joe Doerksen won by Submission (R2)
Doerksen 27%73% Lawlor
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -413(favors Lawlor)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Lawlor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Lawlor)
WelterweightHIT
Marcus Davis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Davis 65%35% Goulet
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Goulet)
WelterweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Hendricks 65%35% Grant
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Hendricks)
HeavyweightHIT
Joey Beltran won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Beltran 56%44% Hague
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +400(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Hague)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Mike Guymon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Guymon 54%46% Yoshida
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -234(favors Yoshida)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Yoshida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Yoshida)
MiddleweightHIT
John Salter won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salter 66%34% MacDonald
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -242(favors MacDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors MacDonald)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors MacDonald)