UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 573 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Florian's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Florian over Takanori Gomi. We're leaning Florian here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 11-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1129 — 251 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Struve's all-rounder approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Roy Nelson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Struve at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Nate Quarry (7-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivera at 1174, Quarry at 1179. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Rivera's submission artist game against Quarry's striker approach. Rivera is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Quarry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Quarry over Jorge Rivera. We're leaning Quarry here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8).

Siver is rated at 1214 — 365 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Siver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Siver the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Dennis Siver. We're leaning Pearson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Andre Winner (2-3) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5). Winner is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Winner at 911 versus Oliveira at 818. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Winner's striker game against Oliveira's wrestler approach. Winner brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winner throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafaello Oliveira over Andre Winner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Ronys Torres (0-1).

Volkmann is rated at 1028 — 173 points above Torres's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkmann throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Torres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over Ronys Torres. We're leaning Volkmann here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Rob Emerson (3-2).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 235 points above Emerson's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lentz's all-rounder game against Emerson's striker approach. Lentz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emerson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Rob Emerson. We're leaning Lentz here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tibau.

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 944), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uno throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Caol Uno. The model is firm on this one: Tibau at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Lucio Linhares (0-1).

Okami is rated at 1061 — 160 points above Linhares's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Linhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Lucio Linhares. The model is firm on this one: Okami at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Harris (3-0) taking on Mario Miranda (1-2). Harris will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1129 versus Miranda at 985. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Harris rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Harris over Mario Miranda. We're leaning Harris here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Charlie Brenneman (4-6) taking on Jason High (2-2). High will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

High is rated at 1084 — 367 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. High throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. High is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. High has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason High over Charlie Brenneman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward High at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.