UFC 109: Relentless: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Mark Coleman (7-4).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 252 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Mark Coleman. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 366 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's striker game against Marquardt's submission artist approach. Sonnen brings a versatile approach, while Marquardt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Chael Sonnen. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-7) taking on Mike Swick (10-4). Swick is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Swick is rated at 1045 — 233 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Thiago is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Swick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Swick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Mike Swick. The model gives Thiago a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).

Maia is rated at 1371 — 485 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Dan Miller. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Frank Trigg (2-4). Trigg is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Serra is rated at 1201 — 264 points above Trigg's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Serra is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Trigg is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Trigg the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trigg throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Trigg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Serra over Frank Trigg. The model gives Serra a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mac Danzig (5-7) taking on Justin Buchholz (1-3). Buchholz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Danzig at 920 versus Buchholz at 810. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Danzig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Buchholz over Mac Danzig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Buchholz at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Ronys Torres (0-1).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 322 points above Torres's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Ronys Torres. The model is firm on this one: Guillard at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features Rob Emerson (3-2) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5).

Emerson is rated at 924 — 157 points above Nover's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emerson's striker game against Nover's wrestler approach. Emerson brings a versatile approach, while Nover looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Emerson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Emerson over Phillipe Nover. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Emerson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Brian Stann (6-4). Davis will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 351 points above Stann's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Davis's wrestler game against Stann's knockout artist approach. Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Brian Stann. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Tuchscherer (1-2) taking on Tim Hague (1-3).

Hague carries a modest Elo edge (819 to 759), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hague throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Hague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Tuchscherer over Tim Hague. The model gives Tuchscherer a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Joey Beltran (3-5) taking on Rolles Gracie (0-0).

Gracie carries a modest Elo edge (873 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joey Beltran over Rolles Gracie. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Beltran at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.