UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz lands on Monday, January 11, 2010 in Fairfax, Virginia, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Maynard vs Nate DiazLightweight | Gray Maynard | Confident | 73% |
| Evan Dunham vs Efrain EscuderoLightweight | Efrain Escudero | Toss-up | 54% |
| Aaron Simpson vs Tom LawlorMiddleweight | Aaron Simpson | Lean | 59% |
| Amir Sadollah vs Brad BlackburnWelterweight | Brad Blackburn | Toss-up | 53% |
| Chris Leben vs Jay SilvaMiddleweight | Chris Leben | Confident | 66% |
| Rick Story vs Jesse LennoxWelterweight | Rick Story | Toss-up | 51% |
| Thiago Tavares vs Nik LentzLightweight | Thiago Tavares | Toss-up | 54% |
| Rory MacDonald vs Mike GuymonWelterweight | Rory MacDonald | Lean | 60% |
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kyle BradleyLightweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Lean | 60% |
| Gerald Harris vs John SalterMiddleweight | John Salter | Lean | 56% |
| Nick Catone vs Jesse ForbesMiddleweight | Nick Catone | Strong | 78% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Gray Maynard vs Nate Diaz
The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1557 — 583 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gray Maynard over Nate Diaz. We're leaning Maynard here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Evan Dunham vs Efrain Escudero
The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6).
Dunham carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 941), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Escudero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Efrain Escudero over Evan Dunham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Escudero at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Aaron Simpson vs Tom Lawlor
The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Tom Lawlor (6-4).
There's a real Elo separation here: Lawlor at 1205 versus Simpson at 1097. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Simpson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Simpson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Tom Lawlor. The model gives Simpson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Amir Sadollah vs Brad Blackburn
The Welterweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on Brad Blackburn (3-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sadollah at 946, Blackburn at 943. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackburn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackburn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brad Blackburn over Amir Sadollah. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackburn at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Chris Leben vs Jay Silva
The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Jay Silva (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leben at 855, Silva at 867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Leben over Jay Silva. We're leaning Leben here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rick Story vs Jesse Lennox
The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Jesse Lennox (1-1).
Story is rated at 1358 — 468 points above Lennox's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lennox throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rick Story over Jesse Lennox. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Thiago Tavares vs Nik Lentz
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1).
Lentz carries a modest Elo edge (1159 to 1124), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lentz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lentz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Nik Lentz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tavares at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Rory MacDonald vs Mike Guymon
The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Mike Guymon (1-2).
MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 642 points above Guymon's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Guymon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guymon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Guymon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Mike Guymon. The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kyle Bradley
The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Kyle Bradley (1-2).
Anjos is rated at 1282 — 379 points above Bradley's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bradley throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Kyle Bradley. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Gerald Harris vs John Salter
The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Harris (3-0) taking on John Salter (1-1). Harris will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Harris is rated at 1129 — 212 points above Salter's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Harris rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Salter throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Salter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Salter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Salter over Gerald Harris. The model gives Salter a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Nick Catone vs Jesse Forbes
The Middleweight matchup features Nick Catone (3-4) taking on Jesse Forbes (0-2). Forbes is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Catone is rated at 1004 — 279 points above Forbes's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Catone throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Catone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nick Catone over Jesse Forbes. The model is firm on this one: Catone at 78%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.