UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Monday, January 11, 2010·Fairfax, Virginia, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Gray Maynard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maynard 73%27% Diaz
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Maynard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Maynard)
LightweightMISS
Evan Dunham won by Submission (R3)
Dunham 46%54% Escudero
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Escudero)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Escudero)
MiddleweightHIT
Aaron Simpson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Simpson 59%41% Lawlor
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Simpson)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Simpson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Simpson)
WelterweightMISS
Amir Sadollah won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sadollah 47%53% Blackburn
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -217(favors Blackburn)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Sadollah)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Blackburn)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Leben won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leben 66%34% Silva
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +100(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Leben)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Leben)
WelterweightHIT
Rick Story won by Decision - Split (R3)
Story 51%49% Lennox
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -55(favors Lennox)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Lennox)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Story)
Lightweight
Tavares 54%46% Lentz
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lentz)
WelterweightHIT
Rory MacDonald won by Submission (R1)
MacDonald 60%40% Guymon
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Guymon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Guymon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Guymon)
LightweightHIT
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anjos 60%40% Bradley
LEAN
→Elo gap: +27(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Bradley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Anjos)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Harris won by KO/TKO (R3)
Harris 44%56% Salter
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Salter)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Salter)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Salter)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Catone won by Decision - Split (R3)
Catone 78%22% Forbes
STRONG
→Elo gap: +84(favors Catone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Catone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Catone)