UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Monday, January 11, 2010·Fairfax, Virginia, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/10(90%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Gray Maynard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maynard 71%29% Diaz
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Maynard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Maynard)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by Submission (R3)
Dunham 59%41% Escudero
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -134(favors Escudero)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Escudero)
MiddleweightHIT
Aaron Simpson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Simpson 50%50% Lawlor
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Lawlor)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Simpson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Simpson)
WelterweightHIT
Amir Sadollah won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sadollah 67%33% Blackburn
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -289(favors Blackburn)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Sadollah)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Blackburn)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Leben won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leben 63%37% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +251(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Leben)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Leben)
WelterweightHIT
Rick Story won by Decision - Split (R3)
Story 63%37% Lennox
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -59(favors Lennox)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Lennox)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Story)
Prelims
Lightweight
Tavares 44%56% Lentz
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lentz)
WelterweightHIT
Rory MacDonald won by Submission (R1)
MacDonald 65%35% Guymon
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Guymon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Guymon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Guymon)
LightweightHIT
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anjos 71%29% Bradley
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +53(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Bradley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Anjos)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Harris won by KO/TKO (R3)
Harris 43%57% Salter
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Salter)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Salter)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Salter)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Catone won by Decision - Split (R3)
Catone 81%19% Forbes
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +138(favors Catone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Catone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Catone)