UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Saturday, December 12, 2009·Memphis, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
BJ Penn won by KO/TKO (R5)
Penn 43%57% Sanchez
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Penn)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Sanchez)
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by Submission (R1)
Mir 37%63% Kongo
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Kongo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Kongo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Kongo)
WelterweightHIT
Jon Fitch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fitch 51%49% Pierce
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +374(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Pierce)
LightweightHIT
Kenny Florian won by Submission (R2)
Florian 54%46% Guida
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +178(favors Florian)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Guida)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Struve 67%33% Buentello
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Buentello)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Buentello)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Struve)
Catch WeightHIT
Alan Belcher won by KO/TKO (R1)
Belcher 69%31% Gouveia
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Gouveia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Gouveia)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 61%39% Nelson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +22(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Wiman)
WelterweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hendricks 72%28% Funch
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +167(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +14.5(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Funch)
MiddleweightHIT
Rousimar Palhares won by Submission (R2)
Palhares 75%25% Linhares
STRONG
→Elo gap: +101(favors Palhares)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Palhares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Palhares)
WelterweightMISS
DaMarques Johnson won by Submission (R1)
Johnson 47%53% Garcia
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -77(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Garcia)
WelterweightHIT
TJ Grant won by KO/TKO (R1)
Grant 57%43% Burns
LEAN
→Elo gap: +42(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Grant)