UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez lands on Saturday, December 12, 2009 in Memphis, Tennessee, USA with 11 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJ Penn vs Diego SanchezLightweight | Diego Sanchez | Lean | 57% |
| Frank Mir vs Cheick KongoHeavyweight | Cheick Kongo | Lean | 63% |
| Jon Fitch vs Mike PierceWelterweight | Jon Fitch | Toss-up | 51% |
| Kenny Florian vs Clay GuidaLightweight | Kenny Florian | Toss-up | 54% |
| Stefan Struve vs Paul BuentelloHeavyweight | Stefan Struve | Confident | 67% |
| Alan Belcher vs Wilson GouveiaCatch Weight | Alan Belcher | Confident | 69% |
| Matt Wiman vs Shane NelsonLightweight | Matt Wiman | Lean | 61% |
| Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo FunchWelterweight | Johny Hendricks | Confident | 72% |
| Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio LinharesMiddleweight | Rousimar Palhares | Strong | 75% |
| DaMarques Johnson vs Edgar GarciaWelterweight | Edgar Garcia | Toss-up | 53% |
| TJ Grant vs Kevin BurnsWelterweight | TJ Grant | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez
The Lightweight championship matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).
Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 202 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Diego Sanchez over BJ Penn. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo
The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Mir carries a modest Elo edge (1252 to 1183), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Mir's submission artist game against Kongo's striker approach. Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kongo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Kongo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Frank Mir. The model gives Kongo a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce
The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Mike Pierce (9-4). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Fitch is rated at 1398 — 227 points above Pierce's 1171. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pierce is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Fitch over Mike Pierce. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fitch at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida
The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Florian is rated at 1304 — 379 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kenny Florian over Clay Guida. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Florian at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Stefan Struve vs Paul Buentello
The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Paul Buentello (3-2). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Buentello at 1019 versus Struve at 878. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Struve's all-rounder game against Buentello's knockout artist approach. Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Buentello is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Buentello throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Stefan Struve over Paul Buentello. We're leaning Struve here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia
The Catch Weight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Wilson Gouveia (6-3).
Belcher is rated at 1293 — 264 points above Gouveia's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gouveia is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Belcher the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alan Belcher over Wilson Gouveia. We're leaning Belcher here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Shane Nelson (2-1).
Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Wiman over Shane Nelson. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch
The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Ricardo Funch (0-3). Funch will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
Hendricks is rated at 1068 — 296 points above Funch's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 14.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Funch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Funch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Ricardo Funch. We're leaning Hendricks here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares
The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Lucio Linhares (0-1).
Palhares is rated at 1251 — 349 points above Linhares's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Linhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over Lucio Linhares. The model is firm on this one: Palhares at 75%.
DaMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia
The Welterweight matchup features DaMarques Johnson (4-5) taking on Edgar Garcia (0-3). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Johnson is rated at 841 — 191 points above Garcia's 650. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edgar Garcia over DaMarques Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garcia at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
TJ Grant vs Kevin Burns
The Welterweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Kevin Burns (2-2).
Grant is rated at 1640 — 785 points above Burns's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Grant over Kevin Burns. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.