The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Saturday, December 5, 2009·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Roy Nelson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nelson 35%65% Schaub
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Schaub)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Schaub)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Matt Hamill won by DQ (R1)
Hamill 16%84% Jones
STRONG
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -1011(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hamill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Jones)
Catch WeightHIT
Kevin Ferguson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferguson 70%30% Alexander
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +176(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Alexander)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Alexander)
LightweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Submission (R2)
Edgar 87%13% Veach
STRONG
→Elo gap: +277(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Edgar)
HeavyweightHIT
Matt Mitrione won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mitrione 53%47% Jones
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jones)
HeavyweightMISS
James McSweeney won by KO/TKO (R3)
McSweeney 39%61% Schoonover
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Schoonover)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Schoonover)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Schoonover)
HeavyweightMISS
Jon Madsen won by Decision - Split (R3)
Madsen 39%61% Wren
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Wren)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Wren)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wren)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Brian Stann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stann 59%41% Wallace
LEAN
→Elo gap: +41(favors Stann)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Stann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wallace)
WelterweightHIT
John Howard won by KO/TKO (R3)
Howard 83%17% Hallman
STRONG
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +305(favors Howard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Howard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Howard)
LightweightHIT
Mark Bocek won by Submission (R1)
Bocek 74%26% Brammer
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +169(favors Bocek)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Bocek)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Bocek)