The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Brendan Schaub (6-4). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nelson at 1129, Schaub at 1154. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Schaub's wrestler approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Roy Nelson. We're leaning Schaub here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Jon Jones (21-1). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1011 points above Hamill's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Hamill's striker game against Jones's all-rounder approach. Hamill brings a versatile approach, while Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Matt Hamill. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 84%.

The Catch Weight matchup features Kevin Ferguson (1-0) taking on Houston Alexander (2-3). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ferguson is rated at 947 — 169 points above Alexander's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Alexander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Ferguson over Houston Alexander. We're leaning Ferguson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Matt Veach (1-1).

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 225 points above Veach's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Matt Veach. The model is firm on this one: Edgar at 87%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Marcus Jones (0-0).

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 327 points above Jones's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Marcus Jones. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitrione at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features James McSweeney (1-1) taking on Darrill Schoonover (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McSweeney at 844, Schoonover at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schoonover throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schoonover is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schoonover has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darrill Schoonover over James McSweeney. The model gives Schoonover a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-0) taking on Justin Wren (0-0).

Madsen is rated at 1098 — 166 points above Wren's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wren throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wren is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wren has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Wren over Jon Madsen. The model gives Wren a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Rodney Wallace (0-2). Stann is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Stann is rated at 1077 — 265 points above Wallace's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wallace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wallace has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Stann over Rodney Wallace. The model gives Stann a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-6) taking on Dennis Hallman (3-5).

Hallman is rated at 1203 — 271 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Howard's striker game against Hallman's wrestler approach. Howard brings a versatile approach, while Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Howard over Dennis Hallman. The model is firm on this one: Howard at 83%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Joe Brammer (0-1).

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 383 points above Brammer's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bocek throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Brammer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Bocek over Joe Brammer. We're leaning Bocek here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.