UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 271 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Griffin's knockout artist game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Griffin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Tito Ortiz. We're leaning Griffin here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 769 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Koscheck's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Josh Koscheck. We're leaning Johnson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-7) taking on Jacob Volkmann (6-3). Thiago is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Volkmann is rated at 1028 — 217 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Thiago is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Volkmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Volkmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thiago throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Jacob Volkmann. The model gives Thiago a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Luiz Cane (4-4).

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 221 points above Cane's 922. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nogueira's all-rounder game against Cane's striker approach. Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cane brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luiz Cane over Rogerio Nogueira. The model gives Cane a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Sadollah will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sadollah is rated at 946 — 185 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sadollah's all-rounder game against Baroni's striker approach. Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Baroni brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Baroni is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Baroni over Amir Sadollah. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Baroni at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Davis is rated at 1032 — 220 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Saunders over Marcus Davis. We're leaning Saunders here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Jake Rosholt (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Grove at 994, Rosholt at 989. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kendall Grove over Jake Rosholt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grove at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Foster (2-2) taking on Brock Larson (3-2).

Foster is rated at 1185 — 310 points above Larson's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Larson over Brian Foster. The model gives Larson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Caol Uno (3-4-2) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Camoes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Uno at 944 versus Camoes at 846. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uno throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Uno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Camoes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Camoes over Caol Uno. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camoes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-3) taking on Jason Dent (1-2).

Dent carries a modest Elo edge (956 to 918), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Jason Dent. The model is firm on this one: Sotiropoulos at 75%.