UFC 101: Declaration
Saturday, August 8, 2009·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA·11 fights
Model: 5/11(45%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
BJ Penn won by Submission (R4)
Penn 34%66% Florian
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Florian)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Florian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Florian)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anderson Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 63%37% Griffin
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +543(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Griffin)
LightweightMISS
Aaron Riley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riley 32%68% Nelson
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -376(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Riley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Nelson)
WelterweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hendricks 50%50% Sadollah
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Sadollah)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Sadollah)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sadollah)
MiddleweightHIT
Ricardo Almeida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Almeida 66%34% Grove
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Grove)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Grove)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Almeida)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Kurt Pellegrino won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pellegrino 58%42% Neer
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Pellegrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Neer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Pellegrino)
WelterweightMISS
John Howard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Howard 43%57% McCrory
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Howard)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors McCrory)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Howard)
MiddleweightMISS
Alessio Sakara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sakara 45%55% Leites
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -223(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Sakara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Leites)
WelterweightHIT
Matthew Riddle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riddle 82%18% Cramer
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +146(favors Riddle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Riddle)
Early Prelims
LightweightMISS
George Sotiropoulos won by Submission (R2)
Sotiropoulos 43%57% Roop
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +376(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Roop)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Sotiropoulos)
WelterweightMISS
Jesse Lennox won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lennox 46%54% Villefort
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Villefort)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Villefort)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Villefort)