UFC 97: Redemption: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Thales Leites (12-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 1154, Leites at 1176. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Leites is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Thales Leites. We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wiman at 868 versus Stout at 756. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stout's striker game against Wiman's wrestler approach. Stout brings a versatile approach, while Wiman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Sam Stout. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

Liddell is rated at 1035 — 159 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Chuck Liddell. The model gives Rua a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Brian Stann (6-4). Soszynski will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stann at 1077 versus Soszynski at 975. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Soszynski's all-rounder game against Stann's knockout artist approach. Soszynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Brian Stann. The model gives Soszynski a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Antoni Hardonk (4-3). Kongo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 235 points above Hardonk's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kongo is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hardonk is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Hardonk the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hardonk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Antoni Hardonk. The model gives Kongo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Luiz Cane (4-4) taking on Steve Cantwell (1-4).

Cane is rated at 922 — 195 points above Cantwell's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cane's striker game against Cantwell's wrestler approach. Cane brings a versatile approach, while Cantwell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cantwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Cantwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Cantwell over Luiz Cane. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cantwell at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Denis Kang (1-1) taking on Xavier Foupa-Pokam (0-1).

Kang is rated at 973 — 195 points above Foupa-Pokam's 778. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Foupa-Pokam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Denis Kang over Xavier Foupa-Pokam. The model gives Kang a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Quarry is rated at 1179 — 347 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Quarry's striker game against MacDonald's wrestler approach. Quarry brings a versatile approach, while MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Quarry over Jason MacDonald. The model gives Quarry a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on David Loiseau (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herman at 1045 versus Loiseau at 919. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Herman's wrestler game against Loiseau's knockout artist approach. Herman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Loiseau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Loiseau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Loiseau over Ed Herman. The model gives Loiseau a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on David Bielkheden (1-1). Bocek will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 278 points above Bielkheden's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bielkheden throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bielkheden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Bielkheden over Mark Bocek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bielkheden at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Ryo Chonan (1-2).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 719 points above Chonan's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chonan throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Grant over Ryo Chonan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eliot Marshall (3-2) taking on Vinny Magalhaes (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Marshall at 889, Magalhaes at 885. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshall throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marshall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.3 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eliot Marshall over Vinny Magalhaes. The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.