UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Saturday, November 15, 2008·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·9 fights
Model: 7/9(78%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Brock Lesnar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lesnar 67%33% Couture
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -556(favors Couture)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lesnar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lesnar)
LightweightHIT
Kenny Florian won by Submission (R1)
Florian 73%27% Stevenson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Florian)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Florian)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Florian)
WelterweightHIT
Dustin Hazelett won by Submission (R1)
Hazelett 65%35% McCrory
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +214(favors Hazelett)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Hazelett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors McCrory)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gonzaga 74%26% Hendricks
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +293(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Gonzaga)
MiddleweightMISS
Demian Maia won by Submission (R1)
Maia 46%54% Quarry
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Quarry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Maia)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Aaron Riley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riley 41%59% Gurgel
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Gurgel)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gurgel)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Riley)
LightweightHIT
Jeremy Stephens won by KO/TKO (R3)
Stephens 71%29% Anjos
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Stephens)
LightweightHIT
Mark Bocek won by Submission (R3)
Bocek 52%48% Robinson
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -77(favors Robinson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Robinson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Bocek)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by Submission (R2)
Brown 69%31% Thomas
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +249(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Brown)