UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Saturday, July 5, 2008·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Forrest Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Griffin 65%35% Jackson
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -169(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Jackson)
MiddleweightHIT
Patrick Cote won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cote 66%34% Almeida
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +183(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Almeida)
LightweightHIT
Joe Stevenson won by Submission (R2)
Stevenson 54%46% Tibau
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +169(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Stevenson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Tibau)
WelterweightHIT
Josh Koscheck won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Koscheck 60%40% Lytle
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +319(favors Koscheck)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Koscheck)
LightweightHIT
Tyson Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 73%27% Aurelio
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Aurelio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Griffin)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by Submission (R1)
Gonzaga 63%37% McCully
LEAN
→Elo gap: -52(favors McCully)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gonzaga)
LightweightHIT
Cole Miller won by Submission (R3)
Miller 56%44% Gurgel
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Gurgel)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Gurgel)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Melvin Guillard won by KO/TKO (R1)
Guillard 56%44% Siver
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Guillard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Guillard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Guillard)
LightweightMISS
Justin Buchholz won by Submission (R2)
Buchholz 32%68% Hill
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -153(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hill)