UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Saturday, July 5, 2008·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·9 fights
Model: 8/9(89%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Forrest Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Griffin 67%33% Jackson
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -269(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Jackson)
MiddleweightHIT
Patrick Cote won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cote 72%28% Almeida
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Almeida)
LightweightHIT
Joe Stevenson won by Submission (R2)
Stevenson 57%43% Tibau
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Stevenson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Tibau)
WelterweightHIT
Josh Koscheck won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Koscheck 66%34% Lytle
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +353(favors Koscheck)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Koscheck)
LightweightHIT
Tyson Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 70%30% Aurelio
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +177(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Aurelio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Griffin)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by Submission (R1)
Gonzaga 59%41% McCully
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -14(favors McCully)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gonzaga)
LightweightHIT
Cole Miller won by Submission (R3)
Miller 54%46% Gurgel
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Gurgel)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Gurgel)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Melvin Guillard won by KO/TKO (R1)
Guillard 62%38% Siver
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Guillard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Guillard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Guillard)
LightweightMISS
Justin Buchholz won by Submission (R2)
Buchholz 42%58% Hill
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -174(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hill)