UFC 82: Pride of a Champion: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion lands on Saturday, March 1, 2008 in Columbus, Ohio, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Silva vs Dan HendersonMiddleweight | Anderson Silva | Confident | 73% |
| Heath Herring vs Cheick KongoHeavyweight | Cheick Kongo | Lean | 65% |
| Chris Leben vs Alessio SakaraMiddleweight | Alessio Sakara | Toss-up | 52% |
| Yushin Okami vs Evan TannerMiddleweight | Yushin Okami | Strong | 81% |
| Jon Fitch vs Chris WilsonWelterweight | Jon Fitch | Confident | 70% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Jake O'BrienHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Lean | 57% |
| Luigi Fioravanti vs Luke CummoWelterweight | Luke Cummo | Toss-up | 50% |
| Josh Koscheck vs Dustin HazelettWelterweight | Josh Koscheck | Lean | 58% |
| Diego Sanchez vs David BielkhedenWelterweight | Diego Sanchez | Confident | 72% |
| Jorge Gurgel vs John HalversonLightweight | Jorge Gurgel | Confident | 75% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Anderson Silva vs Dan Henderson
The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Henderson is rated at 1404 — 250 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henderson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anderson Silva over Dan Henderson. We're leaning Silva here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Heath Herring vs Cheick Kongo
The Heavyweight matchup features Heath Herring (2-2) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Kongo is rated at 1183 — 251 points above Herring's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Herring is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Herring has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Heath Herring. The model gives Kongo a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Chris Leben vs Alessio Sakara
The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7).
Sakara carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 855), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Leben's all-rounder game against Sakara's striker approach. Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Chris Leben. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sakara at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Yushin Okami vs Evan Tanner
The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Evan Tanner (11-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Okami at 1061, Tanner at 1034. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tanner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Okami the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yushin Okami over Evan Tanner. The model is firm on this one: Okami at 81%.
Jon Fitch vs Chris Wilson
The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Chris Wilson (1-2).
Fitch is rated at 1398 — 535 points above Wilson's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Fitch over Chris Wilson. We're leaning Fitch here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Andrei Arlovski vs Jake O'Brien
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Jake O'Brien (4-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: O'Brien at 1002 versus Arlovski at 858. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while O'Brien looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving O'Brien the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Brien has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Jake O'Brien. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Luigi Fioravanti vs Luke Cummo
The Welterweight matchup features Luigi Fioravanti (4-4) taking on Luke Cummo (3-3). Cummo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Fioravanti at 987 versus Cummo at 896. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Fioravanti brings a versatile approach, while Cummo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cummo the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fioravanti throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Luke Cummo over Luigi Fioravanti. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummo at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Josh Koscheck vs Dustin Hazelett
The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Dustin Hazelett (5-4). Hazelett is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Hazelett carries a modest Elo edge (973 to 939), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Koscheck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Koscheck the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Dustin Hazelett. The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Diego Sanchez vs David Bielkheden
The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on David Bielkheden (1-1).
Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 188 points above Bielkheden's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Bielkheden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Diego Sanchez over David Bielkheden. We're leaning Sanchez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jorge Gurgel vs John Halverson
The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Gurgel (3-3) taking on John Halverson (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gurgel at 811, Halverson at 831. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Halverson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gurgel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jorge Gurgel over John Halverson. We're leaning Gurgel here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.