UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman lands on Wednesday, January 23, 2008 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Swick vs Joshua BurkmanWelterweight | Mike Swick | Lean | 57% |
| Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedriesMiddleweight | Patrick Cote | Confident | 69% |
| Thiago Tavares vs Michihiro OmigawaLightweight | Thiago Tavares | Strong | 77% |
| Nate Diaz vs Alvin RobinsonLightweight | Nate Diaz | Lean | 64% |
| Kurt Pellegrino vs Alberto CraneLightweight | Kurt Pellegrino | Strong | 75% |
| Gray Maynard vs Dennis SiverLightweight | Gray Maynard | Lean | 64% |
| Jeremy Stephens vs Cole MillerLightweight | Jeremy Stephens | Lean | 61% |
| Corey Hill vs Joe VeresLightweight | Corey Hill | Confident | 65% |
| Matt Wiman vs Justin BuchholzLightweight | Matt Wiman | Confident | 67% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Mike Swick vs Joshua Burkman
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Swick is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Swick is rated at 1045 — 301 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burkman the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Swick over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Swick a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries
The Middleweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Drew McFedries (4-4). Cote will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Cote is rated at 1221 — 238 points above McFedries's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Cote's all-rounder game against McFedries's knockout artist approach. Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Patrick Cote over Drew McFedries. We're leaning Cote here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Thiago Tavares vs Michihiro Omigawa
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5).
Tavares is rated at 1124 — 371 points above Omigawa's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Michihiro Omigawa. The model is firm on this one: Tavares at 77%.
Nate Diaz vs Alvin Robinson
The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Alvin Robinson (1-2). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1557 — 702 points above Robinson's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Robinson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Diaz over Alvin Robinson. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Alberto Crane
The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Alberto Crane (0-1).
Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 335 points above Crane's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Crane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Alberto Crane. The model is firm on this one: Pellegrino at 75%.
Gray Maynard vs Dennis Siver
The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Maynard.
Siver is rated at 1214 — 239 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Maynard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maynard the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gray Maynard over Dennis Siver. The model gives Maynard a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Jeremy Stephens vs Cole Miller
The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Stephens carries a modest Elo edge (941 to 891), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Stephens's striker game against Miller's wrestler approach. Stephens brings a versatile approach, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Cole Miller. The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Corey Hill vs Joe Veres
The Lightweight matchup features Corey Hill (1-1) taking on Joe Veres (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hill at 786, Veres at 790. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Veres throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Veres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Corey Hill over Joe Veres. We're leaning Hill here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Wiman vs Justin Buchholz
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Justin Buchholz (1-3). Buchholz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Wiman carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 810), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Buchholz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Wiman over Justin Buchholz. We're leaning Wiman here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.