UFC 76: Knockout
Saturday, September 22, 2007·Anaheim, California, USA
Model Record: 6/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Keith Jardine won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jardine 45%55% Liddell
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -444(favors Liddell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jardine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Jardine)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Forrest Griffin won by Submission (R3)
Griffin 65%35% Rua
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rua)
WelterweightHIT
Jon Fitch won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fitch 64%36% Sanchez
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Fitch)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Machida 78%22% Nakamura
STRONG
→Elo gap: +190(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Machida)
LightweightMISS
Tyson Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 44%56% Tavares
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Tavares)
WelterweightMISS
Rich Clementi won by Submission (R2)
Clementi 42%58% Johnson
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -227(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -12.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Clementi)
LightweightHIT
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 63%37% Saraiva
LEAN
→Elo gap: +114(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Saraiva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Saraiva)
HeavyweightHIT
Christian Wellisch won by Submission (R1)
Wellisch 58%42% Junk
LEAN
→Elo gap: +2(favors Wellisch)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Wellisch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Wellisch)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 65%35% Omigawa
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Wiman)