UFC 76: Knockout
Saturday, September 22, 2007·Anaheim, California, USA·9 fights
Model: 6/9(67%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Keith Jardine won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jardine 58%42% Liddell
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -507(favors Liddell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jardine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Jardine)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Forrest Griffin won by Submission (R3)
Griffin 71%29% Rua
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rua)
WelterweightHIT
Jon Fitch won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fitch 65%35% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Fitch)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Machida 79%21% Nakamura
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +293(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Machida)
LightweightMISS
Tyson Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 42%58% Tavares
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -135(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Tavares)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Rich Clementi won by Submission (R2)
Clementi 41%59% Johnson
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -306(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -12.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Clementi)
LightweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 50%50% Saraiva
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +185(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Saraiva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Saraiva)
HeavyweightHIT
Christian Wellisch won by Submission (R1)
Wellisch 55%45% Junk
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +38(favors Wellisch)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Wellisch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Wellisch)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 70%30% Omigawa
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Wiman)