UFC 74: Respect: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 281 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gonzaga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Gabriel Gonzaga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Couture at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9). St-Pierre will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1082 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Koscheck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Koscheck the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Josh Koscheck. The model gives St-Pierre a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Roger Huerta (6-1) taking on Alberto Crane (0-1).

Huerta is rated at 1257 — 376 points above Crane's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huerta throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Huerta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Crane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roger Huerta over Alberto Crane. The model is firm on this one: Huerta at 88%.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-4).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 309 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Stevenson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pellegrino the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Stevenson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Kurt Pellegrino. The model gives Stevenson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Kendall Grove (7-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cote is rated at 1221 — 227 points above Grove's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cote brings a versatile approach, while Grove is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Grove the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Grove is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cote over Kendall Grove. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cote at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on David Heath (2-2). Sobral is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sobral is rated at 1190 — 345 points above Heath's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heath throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Heath has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Sobral over David Heath. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sobral at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Antoni Hardonk (4-3).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 304 points above Hardonk's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mir's wrestler game against Hardonk's knockout artist approach. Mir looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hardonk is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Hardonk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Antoni Hardonk. The model gives Mir a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5).

Leites is rated at 1176 — 418 points above Jensen's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leites throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Jensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Ryan Jensen. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Marcus Aurelio (2-3). Aurelio is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Aurelio carries a modest Elo edge (969 to 926), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Aurelio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Marcus Aurelio. The model gives Guida a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.