UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Tracy Cortez (6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Namajunas at 1421 versus Cortez at 1318. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cortez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cortez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cortez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Tracy Cortez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Namajunas at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7). Ponzinibbio will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Salikhov at 1183, Ponzinibbio at 1177. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salikhov at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jean Silva (5-1) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

Silva is rated at 1537 — 454 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Silva over Drew Dober. We're leaning Silva here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Ange Loosa (2-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bonfim.

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 684 points above Loosa's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonfim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Loosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Ange Loosa. The model gives Bonfim a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Christian Rodriguez (5-3). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 239 points above Rodriguez's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Julian Erosa. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alhassan at 973 versus Brundage at 870. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Alhassan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brundage the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Brundage over Abdul Razak Alhassan. The model gives Brundage a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Joshua Van (8-1). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Van is rated at 1678 — 580 points above Johnson's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Johnson's all-rounder game against Van's striker approach. Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Van brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Van is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Van over Charles Johnson. We're leaning Van here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Fatima Kline (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jasudavicius at 1358 versus Kline at 1257. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jasudavicius throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Kline has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Fatima Kline. The model gives Jasudavicius a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1). Jackson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 233 points above Blackshear's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Blackshear has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Jackson's knockout artist game against Blackshear's wrestler approach. Jackson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blackshear looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Da'Mon Blackshear. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Santos (4-1) taking on Mariya Agapova (2-3).

Santos is rated at 1277 — 440 points above Agapova's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Santos over Mariya Agapova. We're leaning Santos here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Josh Fremd (2-3). Fremd is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Petroski carries a modest Elo edge (967 to 894), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Josh Fremd. The model gives Petroski a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Evan Elder (2-2) taking on Darrius Flowers (0-2).

Elder is rated at 1085 — 309 points above Flowers's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elder throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Elder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Elder over Darrius Flowers. The model gives Elder a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.