The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale: Predictions & Analysis
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale lands on Saturday, June 23, 2007 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJ Penn vs Jens PulverLightweight | BJ Penn | Confident | 71% |
| Nate Diaz vs Manvel GamburyanLightweight | Nate Diaz | Confident | 65% |
| Thales Leites vs Floyd SwordMiddleweight | Thales Leites | Confident | 67% |
| Roger Huerta vs Doug EvansLightweight | Roger Huerta | Strong | 87% |
| Joe Lauzon vs Brandon MelendezLightweight | Joe Lauzon | Strong | 84% |
| Cole Miller vs Andy WangLightweight | Cole Miller | Lean | 57% |
| Gray Maynard vs Rob EmersonLightweight | Rob Emerson | Lean | 57% |
| Leonard Garcia vs Allen BerubeLightweight | Leonard Garcia | Lean | 64% |
| Matt Wiman vs Brian GeraghtyLightweight | Matt Wiman | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
BJ Penn vs Jens Pulver
The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Jens Pulver (6-1-1).
Pulver is rated at 1133 — 195 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Penn is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pulver is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Penn the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: BJ Penn over Jens Pulver. We're leaning Penn here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Nate Diaz vs Manvel Gamburyan
The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 9-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1557 — 586 points above Gamburyan's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamburyan the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gamburyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Diaz over Manvel Gamburyan. We're leaning Diaz here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Thales Leites vs Floyd Sword
The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Floyd Sword (0-0).
Leites is rated at 1176 — 285 points above Sword's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Leites throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sword has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thales Leites over Floyd Sword. We're leaning Leites here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Roger Huerta vs Doug Evans
The Lightweight matchup features Roger Huerta (6-1) taking on Doug Evans (0-1).
Huerta is rated at 1257 — 404 points above Evans's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Huerta throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Huerta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Roger Huerta over Doug Evans. The model is firm on this one: Huerta at 87%.
Joe Lauzon vs Brandon Melendez
The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Brandon Melendez (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Melendez at 955. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 11.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 18.8 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Brandon Melendez. The model is firm on this one: Lauzon at 84%.
Cole Miller vs Andy Wang
The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Andy Wang (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 891, Wang at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cole Miller over Andy Wang. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Gray Maynard vs Rob Emerson
The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Rob Emerson (3-2).
Maynard carries a modest Elo edge (975 to 924), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Maynard's wrestler game against Emerson's striker approach. Maynard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emerson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Emerson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rob Emerson over Gray Maynard. The model gives Emerson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Leonard Garcia vs Allen Berube
The Lightweight matchup features Leonard Garcia (2-6) taking on Allen Berube (0-0).
Berube is rated at 876 — 207 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Berube is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berube has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Leonard Garcia over Allen Berube. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Matt Wiman vs Brian Geraghty
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Brian Geraghty (0-0).
Wiman carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Geraghty has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Wiman over Brian Geraghty. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.