UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Thursday, April 5, 2007·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Joe Stevenson won by Submission (R1)
Stevenson 57%43% Guillard
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Guillard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Guillard)
HeavyweightMISS
Justin McCully won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McCully 34%66% Hardonk
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -128(favors Hardonk)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Hardonk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hardonk)
LightweightHIT
Kenny Florian won by Submission (R3)
Florian 62%38% Mishima
LEAN
→Elo gap: +211(favors Florian)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Florian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.3(favors Mishima)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Wilson Gouveia won by Submission (R2)
Gouveia 54%46% Petruzelli
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +87(favors Gouveia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Gouveia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Gouveia)
WelterweightHIT
Drew Fickett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fickett 63%37% Nakamura
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +205(favors Fickett)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Fickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Fickett)
LightweightHIT
Kurt Pellegrino won by Submission (R1)
Pellegrino 59%41% Mohr
LEAN
→Elo gap: +51(favors Pellegrino)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Pellegrino)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.7(favors Pellegrino)
WelterweightHIT
Kuniyoshi Hironaka won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hironaka 61%39% Petz
LEAN
→Elo gap: +88(favors Hironaka)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Petz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Petz)
WelterweightHIT
Roan Carneiro won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carneiro 52%48% Clementi
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Carneiro)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Clementi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Clementi)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 60%40% Kotani
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kotani)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kotani)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kotani)