UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard lands on Thursday, April 5, 2007 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Stevenson vs Melvin GuillardLightweight | Joe Stevenson | Lean | 57% |
| Justin McCully vs Antoni HardonkHeavyweight | Antoni Hardonk | Confident | 66% |
| Kenny Florian vs Dokonjonosuke MishimaLightweight | Kenny Florian | Lean | 62% |
| Wilson Gouveia vs Seth PetruzelliLight Heavyweight | Wilson Gouveia | Toss-up | 54% |
| Drew Fickett vs Keita NakamuraWelterweight | Drew Fickett | Lean | 63% |
| Kurt Pellegrino vs Nate MohrLightweight | Kurt Pellegrino | Lean | 59% |
| Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Forrest PetzWelterweight | Kuniyoshi Hironaka | Lean | 61% |
| Roan Carneiro vs Rich ClementiWelterweight | Roan Carneiro | Toss-up | 52% |
| Thiago Tavares vs Naoyuki KotaniLightweight | Thiago Tavares | Lean | 60% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Joe Stevenson vs Melvin Guillard
The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).
Guillard is rated at 1177 — 270 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guillard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stevenson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Melvin Guillard. The model gives Stevenson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Justin McCully vs Antoni Hardonk
The Heavyweight matchup features Justin McCully (2-1) taking on Antoni Hardonk (4-3). Hardonk is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McCully at 974, Hardonk at 948. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hardonk throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardonk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McCully has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Antoni Hardonk over Justin McCully. We're leaning Hardonk here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Kenny Florian vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima
The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Dokonjonosuke Mishima (0-1).
Florian is rated at 1304 — 411 points above Mishima's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mishima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kenny Florian over Dokonjonosuke Mishima. The model gives Florian a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Wilson Gouveia vs Seth Petruzelli
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Seth Petruzelli (0-3).
Gouveia is rated at 1030 — 314 points above Petruzelli's 716. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Seth Petruzelli. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gouveia at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Drew Fickett vs Keita Nakamura
The Welterweight matchup features Drew Fickett (3-3) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-6). Nakamura will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Fickett is rated at 1140 — 153 points above Nakamura's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Drew Fickett over Keita Nakamura. The model gives Fickett a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Nate Mohr
The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Nate Mohr (1-2).
Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 487 points above Mohr's 729. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Mohr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Nate Mohr. The model gives Pellegrino a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Forrest Petz
The Welterweight matchup features Kuniyoshi Hironaka (1-2) taking on Forrest Petz (2-4).
There's a real Elo separation here: Hironaka at 878 versus Petz at 784. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Petz throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Petz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Petz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kuniyoshi Hironaka over Forrest Petz. The model gives Hironaka a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Roan Carneiro vs Rich Clementi
The Welterweight matchup features Roan Carneiro (4-4) taking on Rich Clementi (5-4). Carneiro is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Carneiro at 1115 versus Clementi at 1034. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Clementi throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Roan Carneiro over Rich Clementi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carneiro at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Thiago Tavares vs Naoyuki Kotani
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-4). Tavares will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Tavares is rated at 1124 — 440 points above Kotani's 684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kotani throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kotani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kotani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Naoyuki Kotani. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.