UFC 65: Bad Intentions: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 749 points above Hughes's 1273. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving St-Pierre the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Matt Hughes. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 75%.

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Jeff Monson (4-2). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia carries a modest Elo edge (1296 to 1233), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Monson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Sylvia's striker game against Monson's all-rounder approach. Sylvia brings a versatile approach, while Monson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Monson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Jeff Monson. We're leaning Sylvia here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Drew McFedries (4-4) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7).

McFedries carries a modest Elo edge (983 to 931), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving McFedries the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. McFedries has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Drew McFedries. The model gives Sakara a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 307 points above Vera's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Vera over Frank Mir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Dokonjonosuke Mishima (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stevenson at 907, Mishima at 893. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Mishima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Dokonjonosuke Mishima. The model is firm on this one: Stevenson at 88%.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1185 — 166 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Diaz over Gleison Tibau. The model is firm on this one: Diaz at 77%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antoni Hardonk (4-3) taking on Sherman Pendergarst (0-0).

Hardonk carries a modest Elo edge (948 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pendergarst throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pendergarst is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pendergarst has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antoni Hardonk over Sherman Pendergarst. We're leaning Hardonk here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Irvin (4-5) taking on Hector Ramirez (0-1).

Irvin carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Irvin throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramirez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramirez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Irvin over Hector Ramirez. The model gives Irvin a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jake O'Brien (4-2) taking on Josh Shockman (0-0).

O'Brien carries a modest Elo edge (1002 to 945), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Brien throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Shockman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake O'Brien over Josh Shockman. The model is firm on this one: O'Brien at 83%.