UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Ikram Aliskerov (3-1). Aliskerov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Whittaker at 1528 versus Aliskerov at 1439. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliskerov throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov. The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Sergei Pavlovich (7-3). Pavlovich will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Volkov at 1754 versus Pavlovich at 1663. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Volkov's all-rounder game against Pavlovich's knockout artist approach. Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pavlovich is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pavlovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pavlovich at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Daniel Rodriguez (9-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 154 points above Gastelum's 1340. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez. We're leaning Gastelum here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov (4-1) taking on Antonio Trocoli (0-2). Trocoli is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Magomedov is rated at 1254 — 450 points above Trocoli's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 7.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Trocoli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Trocoli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shara Magomedov over Antonio Trocoli. We're leaning Magomedov here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Oezdemir carries a modest Elo edge (1501 to 1432), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Oezdemir's all-rounder game against Walker's knockout artist approach. Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Volkan Oezdemir. The model gives Walker a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Jared Gordon (9-6). Haqparast will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Haqparast at 1235, Gordon at 1209. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gordon over Nasrat Haqparast. The model gives Gordon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Lima (2-0) taking on Muhammad Naimov (5-1). Naimov is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lima carries a modest Elo edge (1177 to 1112), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Naimov throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Naimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muhammad Naimov over Felipe Lima. The model gives Naimov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1).

Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 200 points above Dalby's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fakhretdinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dalby is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fakhretdinov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fakhretdinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Rinat Fakhretdinov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dalby at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Muin Gafurov (2-2) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-4). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gafurov at 1026, Kang at 1029. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gafurov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muin Gafurov over Kyung Ho Kang. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gafurov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (1-0) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (2-3). Ribeiro will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gadzhiyasulov carries a modest Elo edge (957 to 923), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribeiro throws significantly more leather — a 8.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gadzhiyasulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendson Ribeiro over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. The model gives Ribeiro a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features ChangHo Lee (2-0) taking on Xiao Long (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lee at 1024, Long at 1006. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Long throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Long is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Long has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Xiao Long over ChangHo Lee. The model gives Long a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.