UFC Fight Night 5: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Goulet (4-4) taking on Luke Cummo (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Goulet at 997 versus Cummo at 896. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Goulet is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Cummo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Cummo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Goulet has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Goulet over Luke Cummo. The model gives Goulet a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1154 — 299 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Leben looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leben the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Anderson Silva. We're leaning Leben here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 157 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Bonnar's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Stephan Bonnar. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Hominick (3-3) taking on Jorge Gurgel (3-3).

Hominick carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hominick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gurgel looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gurgel the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hominick throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gurgel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hominick over Jorge Gurgel. We're leaning Hominick here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Dave Menne (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Koscheck at 939 versus Menne at 814. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Menne is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Menne the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menne throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Dave Menne. We're leaning Koscheck here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Lambert (4-3) taking on Branden Lee Hinkle (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lambert at 890, Hinkle at 897. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hinkle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lambert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Lambert over Branden Lee Hinkle. The model gives Lambert a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 497 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Jon Fitch. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rob MacDonald (1-1) taking on Kristian Rothaermel (0-0).

MacDonald carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothaermel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rothaermel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob MacDonald over Kristian Rothaermel. The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Santiago (1-4) taking on Justin Levens (0-1).

Levens carries a modest Elo edge (829 to 772), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Levens throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Levens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Levens over Jorge Santiago. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Levens at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.