UFC Fight Night 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features David Loiseau (4-4) taking on Evan Tanner (11-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tanner at 1034 versus Loiseau at 919. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Loiseau's striker game against Tanner's wrestler approach. Loiseau brings a versatile approach, while Tanner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Tanner over David Loiseau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanner at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Edwin DeWees (0-2).

Leben carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 788), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. DeWees is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Edwin DeWees. The model gives Leben a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Fabiano Scherner (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vera at 945 versus Scherner at 820. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scherner throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Scherner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Scherner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Vera over Fabiano Scherner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Drew Fickett (3-3) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9). Koscheck will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fickett is rated at 1140 — 200 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fickett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fickett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Drew Fickett. The model is firm on this one: Koscheck at 82%.

The Welterweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Alves is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fisher at 876, Alves at 901. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Spencer Fisher. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Brock Larson (3-2). Fitch will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 522 points above Larson's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over Brock Larson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fitch at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Goulet (4-4) taking on Jay Hieron (0-3).

Goulet is rated at 997 — 251 points above Hieron's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hieron throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hieron is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Goulet has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Goulet over Jay Hieron. We're leaning Goulet here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.