UFC 44: Undisputed: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 189 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Randy Couture. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4). Arlovski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 268 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Matyushenko's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Matyushenko brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Vladimir Matyushenko. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Gan McGee (2-1).

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 195 points above McGee's 1100. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 13.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Gan McGee. The model gives Sylvia a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on David Loiseau (4-4). Loiseau will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 256 points above Loiseau's 919. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loiseau throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Loiseau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Loiseau over Jorge Rivera. We're leaning Loiseau here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Edwin DeWees (0-2).

Franklin is rated at 1094 — 306 points above DeWees's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. DeWees is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. DeWees has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Edwin DeWees. We're leaning Franklin here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Dave Strasser (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Parisyan at 1037 versus Strasser at 948. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strasser throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Strasser is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Parisyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dave Strasser over Karo Parisyan. The model gives Strasser a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Thomson (3-3) taking on Gerald Strebendt (0-0).

Thomson is rated at 1217 — 345 points above Strebendt's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strebendt throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Strebendt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Strebendt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Strebendt over Josh Thomson. The model gives Strebendt a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on Jeremy Jackson (0-1).

Diaz is rated at 1185 — 366 points above Jackson's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Jackson over Nick Diaz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-4) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2).

Franca is rated at 1107 — 164 points above Uno's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uno throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Uno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Franca has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caol Uno over Hermes Franca. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Uno at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.