UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Saturday, May 18, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Murphy 70%30% Barboza
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+10.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Murphy)
WelterweightHIT
Khaos Williams won by KO/TKO (R1)
Williams 53%47% Harris
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-1.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Harris)
WelterweightHIT
Themba Gorimbo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gorimbo 52%48% Brahimaj
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-3.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +144(favors Gorimbo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Brahimaj)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Gorimbo)
BantamweightMISS
Adrian Yanez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yanez 46%54% Salvador
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +564(favors Yanez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Yanez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Salvador)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Angela Hill won by Submission (R2)
Hill 52%48% Pinheiro
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Pinheiro)
LightweightHIT
Tom Nolan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nolan 70%30% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -109(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.6(favors Nolan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Oumar Sy won by Submission (R1)
Sy 60%40% Tokkos
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Tokkos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Tokkos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tokkos)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Melissa Gatto won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gatto 53%47% Vidal
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +53(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Vidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Gatto)
MiddleweightHIT
Abus Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 54%46% Alves
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Alves)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Ariane Carnelossi won by DQ (R2)
Carnelossi 28%72% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -391(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Rodriguez)
BantamweightMISS
Alatengheili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alatengheili 49%51% Rodrigues
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +258(favors Alatengheili)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Rodrigues)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Vanessa Demopoulos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Demopoulos 46%54% Ducote
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +122(favors Demopoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Ducote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Demopoulos)