UFC 22: Only One Can be Champion: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 22: Only One Can be Champion lands on Friday, September 24, 1999 in Lake Charles, Louisiana, USA with 8 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Shamrock vs Tito OrtizMiddleweight | Tito Ortiz | Lean | 61% |
| Tim Lajcik vs Ron WatermanHeavyweight | Ron Waterman | Confident | 75% |
| Jeremy Horn vs Jason GodseyHeavyweight | Jeremy Horn | Strong | 85% |
| Brad Kohler vs Steve JudsonHeavyweight | Brad Kohler | Strong | 75% |
| Chuck Liddell vs Paul JonesMiddleweight | Chuck Liddell | Confident | 65% |
| Matt Hughes vs Valeri IgnatovLightweight | Matt Hughes | Toss-up | 52% |
| John Lewis vs Lowell AndersonMiddleweight | John Lewis | Lean | 64% |
| Jens Pulver vs Alfonso AlcarezLightweight | Jens Pulver | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Frank Shamrock vs Tito Ortiz
The Middleweight championship matchup features Frank Shamrock (4-0) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).
Shamrock is rated at 1480 — 421 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Shamrock rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Frank Shamrock. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Tim Lajcik vs Ron Waterman
The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Lajcik (0-1-1) taking on Ron Waterman (1-1-1).
Waterman is rated at 1032 — 202 points above Lajcik's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Waterman throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Waterman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ron Waterman over Tim Lajcik. We're leaning Waterman here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jeremy Horn vs Jason Godsey
The Heavyweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Jason Godsey (0-1).
Horn carries a modest Elo edge (936 to 877), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Godsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Jason Godsey. The model is firm on this one: Horn at 85%.
Brad Kohler vs Steve Judson
The Heavyweight matchup features Brad Kohler (0-1) taking on Steve Judson (0-1).
Kohler is rated at 1041 — 284 points above Judson's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kohler throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kohler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Judson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brad Kohler over Steve Judson. The model is firm on this one: Kohler at 75%.
Chuck Liddell vs Paul Jones
The Middleweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Paul Jones (1-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Liddell at 1035 versus Jones at 917. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Liddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Paul Jones. We're leaning Liddell here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Hughes vs Valeri Ignatov
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Valeri Ignatov (0-1).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 425 points above Ignatov's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ignatov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ignatov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Valeri Ignatov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
John Lewis vs Lowell Anderson
The Middleweight matchup features John Lewis (1-0) taking on Lowell Anderson (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Lewis at 1020 versus Anderson at 873. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Lewis over Lowell Anderson. The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Jens Pulver vs Alfonso Alcarez
The Lightweight matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on Alfonso Alcarez (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Pulver at 1133 versus Alcarez at 1000. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alcarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alcarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jens Pulver over Alfonso Alcarez. The model gives Pulver a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.