UFC 18: The Road to the Heavyweight Title: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 18: The Road to the Heavyweight Title lands on Friday, January 8, 1999 in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA with 7 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bas Rutten vs Tsuyoshi KohsakaHeavyweight | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka | Confident | 68% |
| Pat Miletich vs Jorge PatinoLightweight | Pat Miletich | Lean | 64% |
| Pedro Rizzo vs Mark ColemanHeavyweight | Pedro Rizzo | Confident | 74% |
| Tito Ortiz vs Jerry BohlanderMiddleweight | Tito Ortiz | Lean | 63% |
| Mikey Burnett vs Townsend SaundersLightweight | Mikey Burnett | Confident | 72% |
| Evan Tanner vs Darrel GholarMiddleweight | Evan Tanner | Confident | 66% |
| Laverne Clark vs Frank CaracciLightweight | Laverne Clark | Confident | 68% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Bas Rutten vs Tsuyoshi Kohsaka
The Heavyweight matchup features Bas Rutten (1-0) taking on Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-2).
Rutten is rated at 1256 — 241 points above Kohsaka's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kohsaka throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kohsaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Rutten has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tsuyoshi Kohsaka over Bas Rutten. We're leaning Kohsaka here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Pat Miletich vs Jorge Patino
The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Jorge Patino (0-0).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 187 points above Patino's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Miletich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Patino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Miletich over Jorge Patino. The model gives Miletich a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Pedro Rizzo vs Mark Coleman
The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Mark Coleman (7-4).
Rizzo is rated at 1268 — 273 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Rizzo's striker game against Coleman's submission artist approach. Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Coleman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rizzo throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pedro Rizzo over Mark Coleman. We're leaning Rizzo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Tito Ortiz vs Jerry Bohlander
The Middleweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Jerry Bohlander (5-1).
Bohlander carries a modest Elo edge (1090 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Bohlander has won 5 straight.
The style clash matters here: Ortiz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bohlander is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bohlander the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 9.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.7 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Jerry Bohlander. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Mikey Burnett vs Townsend Saunders
The Lightweight matchup features Mikey Burnett (1-1) taking on Townsend Saunders (0-1).
Burnett is rated at 1124 — 229 points above Saunders's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Burnett throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Burnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mikey Burnett over Townsend Saunders. We're leaning Burnett here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Evan Tanner vs Darrel Gholar
The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Darrel Gholar (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Tanner at 1034 versus Gholar at 890. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gholar throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gholar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gholar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Evan Tanner over Darrel Gholar. We're leaning Tanner here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Laverne Clark vs Frank Caracci
The Lightweight matchup features Laverne Clark (4-0) taking on Frank Caracci (0-0).
Clark is rated at 1095 — 178 points above Caracci's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Clark rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Caracci throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Caracci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Caracci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Laverne Clark over Frank Caracci. We're leaning Clark here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.