UFC - Ultimate Brazil: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Frank Shamrock (5-0) taking on John Lober (0-1).

Shamrock is rated at 1600 — 633 points above Lober's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Shamrock rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Shamrock over John Lober. We're leaning Shamrock here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-10) taking on Wanderlei Silva (5-7).

Belfort is rated at 1440 — 152 points above Silva's 1288. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Wanderlei Silva. The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (9-5) taking on David Abbott (8-10).

Rizzo is rated at 1328 — 440 points above Abbott's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Abbott is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Abbott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Abbott over Pedro Rizzo. We're leaning Abbott here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-2) taking on Mikey Burnett (2-1).

Miletich carries a modest Elo edge (1217 to 1173), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burnett throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Burnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mikey Burnett over Pat Miletich. The model gives Burnett a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-3) taking on Pete Williams (3-5).

Kohsaka is rated at 1105 — 178 points above Williams's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kohsaka's knockout artist game against Williams's wrestler approach. Kohsaka is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Williams looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kohsaka throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kohsaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tsuyoshi Kohsaka over Pete Williams. The model gives Kohsaka a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ebenezer Fontes Braga (1-0) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Braga at 1146 versus Horn at 1052. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.6 more per 15 minutes. Braga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Ebenezer Fontes Braga. We're leaning Horn here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Tulio Palhares (1-0) taking on Adriano Santos (0-1).

Palhares is rated at 1191 — 382 points above Santos's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tulio Palhares over Adriano Santos. The model gives Palhares a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Cesar Marscucci (1-0) taking on Paulo Santos (0-1).

Marscucci is rated at 1191 — 382 points above Santos's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cesar Marscucci over Paulo Santos. The model gives Marscucci a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.