UFC - Ultimate Brazil: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Frank Shamrock (4-0) taking on John Lober (0-0).

Shamrock is rated at 1480 — 516 points above Lober's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Shamrock rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Shamrock over John Lober. We're leaning Shamrock here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Belfort at 1255, Silva at 1282. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Belfort is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wanderlei Silva over Vitor Belfort. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Rizzo is rated at 1268 — 491 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rizzo's striker game against Abbott's submission artist approach. Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Abbott is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Abbott over Pedro Rizzo. We're leaning Abbott here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Mikey Burnett (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miletich at 1150, Burnett at 1124. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burnett throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Burnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mikey Burnett over Pat Miletich. The model gives Burnett a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-2) taking on Pete Williams (3-4).

Kohsaka is rated at 1014 — 161 points above Williams's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kohsaka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Williams looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Williams the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kohsaka throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kohsaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tsuyoshi Kohsaka over Pete Williams. The model gives Kohsaka a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ebenezer Fontes Braga (0-0) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-6).

Braga is rated at 1096 — 161 points above Horn's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.6 more per 15 minutes. Braga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Ebenezer Fontes Braga. We're leaning Horn here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Tulio Palhares (0-0) taking on Adriano Santos (0-0).

Palhares is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Santos's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tulio Palhares over Adriano Santos. The model gives Palhares a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Cesar Marscucci (0-0) taking on Paulo Santos (0-0).

Marscucci is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Santos's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cesar Marscucci over Paulo Santos. The model gives Marscucci a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.