UFC 17: Redemption: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 17: Redemption lands on Friday, May 15, 1998 in Mobile, Alabama, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Shamrock vs Jeremy HornMiddleweight | Frank Shamrock | Confident | 74% |
| Pete Williams vs Mark ColemanHeavyweight | Mark Coleman | Lean | 58% |
| Dan Henderson vs Carlos NewtonMiddleweight | Carlos Newton | Lean | 62% |
| David Abbott vs Hugo DuarteHeavyweight | David Abbott | Confident | 72% |
| Mike van Arsdale vs Joe PardoHeavyweight | Mike van Arsdale | Lean | 61% |
| Carlos Newton vs Bob GilstrapMiddleweight | Carlos Newton | Strong | 88% |
| Dan Henderson vs Allan GoesMiddleweight | Dan Henderson | Strong | 90% |
| Andre Roberts vs Harry MoskowitzHeavyweight | Harry Moskowitz | Confident | 65% |
| Chuck Liddell vs Noe HernandezMiddleweight | Chuck Liddell | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Frank Shamrock vs Jeremy Horn
The Middleweight matchup features Frank Shamrock (4-0) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-6).
Shamrock is rated at 1480 — 544 points above Horn's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Shamrock rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 23.7 more per 15 minutes. Horn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Shamrock over Jeremy Horn. We're leaning Shamrock here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Pete Williams vs Mark Coleman
The Heavyweight matchup features Pete Williams (3-4) taking on Mark Coleman (7-4).
There's a real Elo separation here: Coleman at 995 versus Williams at 853. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Williams looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Coleman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Williams the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Coleman over Pete Williams. The model gives Coleman a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Dan Henderson vs Carlos Newton
The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Carlos Newton (3-3).
Henderson is rated at 1404 — 381 points above Newton's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Henderson's striker game against Newton's wrestler approach. Henderson brings a versatile approach, while Newton looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Newton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Newton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Carlos Newton over Dan Henderson. The model gives Newton a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
David Abbott vs Hugo Duarte
The Heavyweight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Hugo Duarte (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Duarte at 915 versus Abbott at 777. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Duarte has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: David Abbott over Hugo Duarte. We're leaning Abbott here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Mike van Arsdale vs Joe Pardo
The Heavyweight matchup features Mike van Arsdale (2-1) taking on Joe Pardo (0-0).
Arsdale is rated at 1043 — 153 points above Pardo's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike van Arsdale over Joe Pardo. The model gives Arsdale a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Carlos Newton vs Bob Gilstrap
The Middleweight matchup features Carlos Newton (3-3) taking on Bob Gilstrap (0-0).
Newton is rated at 1023 — 155 points above Gilstrap's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Newton throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Gilstrap has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Carlos Newton over Bob Gilstrap. The model is firm on this one: Newton at 88%.
Dan Henderson vs Allan Goes
The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Allan Goes (0-0).
Henderson is rated at 1404 — 473 points above Goes's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Goes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Henderson over Allan Goes. The model is firm on this one: Henderson at 90%.
Andre Roberts vs Harry Moskowitz
The Heavyweight matchup features Andre Roberts (1-1) taking on Harry Moskowitz (0-1).
Roberts is rated at 1130 — 255 points above Moskowitz's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Moskowitz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moskowitz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Harry Moskowitz over Andre Roberts. We're leaning Moskowitz here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Chuck Liddell vs Noe Hernandez
The Middleweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Noe Hernandez (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Liddell at 1035 versus Hernandez at 915. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Noe Hernandez. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.