UFC 14: Showdown: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Smith (4-2) taking on Mark Coleman (7-4).

Smith is rated at 1155 — 160 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Coleman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Coleman over Maurice Smith. The model gives Coleman a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Kerr (2-0) taking on Dan Bobish (0-0).

Kerr is rated at 1241 — 352 points above Bobish's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bobish throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bobish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bobish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Bobish over Mark Kerr. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bobish at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Jackson (2-1) taking on Tony Fryklund (2-1).

Fryklund carries a modest Elo edge (1024 to 977), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fryklund throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fryklund is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fryklund has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Fryklund over Kevin Jackson. The model gives Fryklund a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Dan Bobish (0-0) taking on Brian Johnston (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bobish at 890, Johnston at 915. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnston throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnston is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Bobish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Bobish over Brian Johnston. The model gives Bobish a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Kerr (2-0) taking on Moti Horenstein (0-1).

Kerr is rated at 1241 — 361 points above Horenstein's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kerr throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kerr is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.2 more per 15 minutes. Kerr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Kerr over Moti Horenstein. The model is firm on this one: Kerr at 91%.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Jackson (2-1) taking on Todd Butler (0-0).

Jackson carries a modest Elo edge (977 to 912), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 20.4 more per 15 minutes. Butler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Jackson over Todd Butler. The model is firm on this one: Jackson at 91%.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Moreira (0-1) taking on Yuri Vaulin (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreira at 1038 versus Vaulin at 900. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Vaulin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vaulin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuri Vaulin over Joe Moreira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vaulin at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alex Hunter (1-0) taking on Sam Fulton (0-1).

Hunter is rated at 1129 — 318 points above Fulton's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fulton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fulton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fulton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Hunter over Sam Fulton. The model gives Hunter a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Fryklund (2-1) taking on Donnie Chappell (0-0).

Fryklund is rated at 1024 — 168 points above Chappell's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chappell throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chappell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chappell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Fryklund over Donnie Chappell. The model is firm on this one: Fryklund at 87%.