UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Steve Erceg (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Erceg.

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 318 points above Erceg's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Erceg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Erceg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Steve Erceg. The model gives Pantoja a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Jonathan Martinez (10-4).

Aldo carries a modest Elo edge (1420 to 1343), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Jose Aldo. The model is firm on this one: Martinez at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Vitor Petrino (5-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Petrino at 1195 versus Smith at 1070. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Petrino the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Anthony Smith. The model gives Petrino a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5). Potieria is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 1113 — 291 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's all-rounder game against Potieria's striker approach. Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Potieria brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Ihor Potieria. We're leaning Pereira here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Borralho is rated at 1570 — 525 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borralho throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Borralho over Paul Craig. We're leaning Borralho here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Jack Shore (6-2).

Brito is rated at 1283 — 214 points above Shore's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Shore over Joanderson Brito. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shore at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (4-2) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 438 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. We're leaning Lucindo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Myktybek Orolbai (3-1) taking on Elves Brener (3-2).

Orolbai is rated at 1374 — 341 points above Brener's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brener throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Orolbai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.5 more per 15 minutes. Brener has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elves Brener over Myktybek Orolbai. The model gives Brener a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Joaquim Silva (6-5).

Klose is rated at 1397 — 258 points above Silva's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Klose brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Joaquim Silva. The model gives Klose a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mauricio Ruffy (3-1) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6).

Ruffy is rated at 1462 — 516 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ruffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Mauricio Ruffy. The model gives Mullarkey a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Dione Barbosa (2-1) taking on Ernesta Kareckaite (0-1). Kareckaite is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barbosa at 1025, Kareckaite at 999. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kareckaite throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kareckaite is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kareckaite has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite over Dione Barbosa. The model gives Kareckaite a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ismael Bonfim (2-2) taking on Vinc Pichel (7-4).

Pichel carries a modest Elo edge (1062 to 989), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismael Bonfim over Vinc Pichel. The model gives Bonfim a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alessandro Costa (2-2) taking on Kevin Borjas (1-2).

Costa carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 879), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borjas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessandro Costa over Kevin Borjas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Costa at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.