UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Saturday, May 4, 2024·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pantoja 50%50% Erceg
Over/UnderOver 74%
Under 26%Over 74%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-12.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +211(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Pantoja)
BantamweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldo 28%72% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-13.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Martinez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R1)
Smith 22%78% Petrino
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 21% (+1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Petrino)
MiddleweightHIT
Michel Pereira won by Submission (R1)
Pereira 89%11% Potieria
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +678(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pereira)
MiddleweightHIT
Caio Borralho won by KO/TKO (R2)
Borralho 88%12% Craig
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Borralho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Borralho)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Joanderson Brito won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brito 58%42% Shore
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 65% (-7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Brito)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lucindo 82%18% Kowalkiewicz
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Lucindo)
LightweightHIT
Myktybek Orolbai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Orolbai 72%28% Brener
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Brener)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Brener)
→Takedown rate advantage: +10.5(favors Orolbai)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 68%32% Silva
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +344(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Klose)
Early Prelims
LightweightMISS
Mauricio Ruffy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ruffy 43%57% Mullarkey
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Mullarkey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Mullarkey)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Dione Barbosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barbosa 41%59% Kareckaite
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kareckaite)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kareckaite)
LightweightHIT
Ismael Bonfim won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bonfim 62%38% Pichel
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -262(favors Pichel)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Pichel)
FlyweightHIT
Alessandro Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 62%38% Borjas
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +111(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Costa)