UFC 9: Motor City Madness: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-4) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Severn at 1355 versus Shamrock at 1231. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Severn over Ken Shamrock. The model gives Severn a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (9-1) taking on Amaury Bitetti (1-1).

Frye is rated at 1461 — 507 points above Bitetti's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Bitetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Don Frye over Amaury Bitetti. The model is firm on this one: Frye at 86%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (4-3) taking on Koji Kitao (0-1).

Hall is rated at 1119 — 204 points above Kitao's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kitao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kitao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hall over Koji Kitao. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Schultz (1-0) taking on Gary Goodridge (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Schultz at 1304 versus Goodridge at 1198. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Schultz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gary Goodridge over Mark Schultz. The model is firm on this one: Goodridge at 87%.

The Open Weight matchup features Rafael Carino (1-0) taking on Matt Andersen (0-1).

Carino is rated at 1191 — 382 points above Andersen's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andersen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Andersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Carino over Matt Andersen. The model gives Carino a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Cal Worsham (1-2) taking on Zane Frazier (0-1).

Worsham is rated at 962 — 289 points above Frazier's 673. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Worsham throws significantly more leather — a 8.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Frazier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frazier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cal Worsham over Zane Frazier. We're leaning Worsham here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Steve Nelmark (2-1) taking on Tai Bowden (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bowden at 1096 versus Nelmark at 1002. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowden throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bowden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Nelmark over Tai Bowden. We're leaning Nelmark here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.