UFC 9: Motor City Madness: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 9: Motor City Madness lands on Friday, May 17, 1996 in Detroit, Michigan, USA with 7 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Severn vs Ken ShamrockOpen Weight | Ken Shamrock | Toss-up | 50% |
| Don Frye vs Amaury BitettiOpen Weight | Don Frye | Strong | 82% |
| Mark Hall vs Koji KitaoOpen Weight | Mark Hall | Lean | 56% |
| Mark Schultz vs Gary GoodridgeOpen Weight | Gary Goodridge | Strong | 82% |
| Rafael Carino vs Matt AndersenOpen Weight | Rafael Carino | Confident | 65% |
| Cal Worsham vs Zane FrazierOpen Weight | Cal Worsham | Confident | 72% |
| Steve Nelmark vs Tai BowdenOpen Weight | Steve Nelmark | Lean | 62% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Dan Severn vs Ken Shamrock
The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-4-2).
Severn carries a modest Elo edge (1181 to 1125), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Dan Severn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shamrock at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Don Frye vs Amaury Bitetti
The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Amaury Bitetti (0-1).
Frye is rated at 1404 — 448 points above Bitetti's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Bitetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Don Frye over Amaury Bitetti. The model is firm on this one: Frye at 82%.
Mark Hall vs Koji Kitao
The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (3-2) taking on Koji Kitao (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1051 versus Kitao at 922. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kitao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kitao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Hall over Koji Kitao. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Mark Schultz vs Gary Goodridge
The Open Weight matchup features Mark Schultz (0-0) taking on Gary Goodridge (3-4).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schultz at 1181, Goodridge at 1190. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Schultz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gary Goodridge over Mark Schultz. The model is firm on this one: Goodridge at 82%.
Rafael Carino vs Matt Andersen
The Open Weight matchup features Rafael Carino (0-0) taking on Matt Andersen (0-0).
Carino is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Andersen's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Andersen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Andersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rafael Carino over Matt Andersen. We're leaning Carino here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Cal Worsham vs Zane Frazier
The Open Weight matchup features Cal Worsham (1-1) taking on Zane Frazier (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Worsham at 959 versus Frazier at 811. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Worsham throws significantly more leather — a 8.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Frazier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frazier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cal Worsham over Zane Frazier. We're leaning Worsham here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Steve Nelmark vs Tai Bowden
The Open Weight matchup features Steve Nelmark (1-0) taking on Tai Bowden (0-1).
Bowden carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 1005), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bowden throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bowden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Steve Nelmark over Tai Bowden. The model gives Nelmark a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.